MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 21, 2026
Portrait of Carmen Mlodzinski
Carmen Mlodzinski
PIT · P
Change to
Portrait of Zebby Matthews
Zebby Matthews
MIN · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Zebby Matthews.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Carmen Mlodzinski’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Zebby Matthews wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Carmen Mlodzinski wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Carmen Mlodzinski
95.0
Zebby Matthews
95.1
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Carmen Mlodzinski
9.6%
Zebby Matthews
10.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Carmen Mlodzinski
18.4%
Zebby Matthews
19.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Carmen Mlodzinski
30.5%
Zebby Matthews
27.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Carmen Mlodzinski
46.2%
Zebby Matthews
38.9%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Carmen Mlodzinski
7.3%
Zebby Matthews
12.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Carmen Mlodzinski
.338
Zebby Matthews
.335
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Carmen Mlodzinski
3.414.98
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.76
4.60
Zebby Matthews
3.414.98
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.63
4.54
WHIPlower is better
Carmen Mlodzinski
.9001.58
now 1.42
1.37
Zebby Matthews
.9001.58
now 1.03
1.32

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Carmen Mlodzinski
4067.40
now 46
46
Zebby Matthews
4067.40
now 24
55
Winshigher is better
Carmen Mlodzinski
.0006.60
now 4
25
Zebby Matthews
.0006.60
now 1
13

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellCarmen Mlodzinski — sell.conf 0.78
SellZebby Matthews — sell.conf 0.75
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