Rest of Season Projection
ChadCategorySean
56K →66
3.73ERA ←3.77
1.39WHIP →1.26
2–7W ←0–0
1–5SV ←0
Current Season
ChadCategorySean
34K →42
2.54ERA ←5.08
1.20WHIP ←1.46
3W ←0
2SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chad Patrick
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.75 is 1.41 above the ERA — regression coming
Sean Manaea
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.343 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Chad Patrick: 56 K / 3.73 ERA. Sean Manaea: 66 K / 3.77 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).