Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryReid
130K →131
2.89ERA ←2.91
1.17WHIP ←1.21
8–17W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryReid
72K →82
1.96ERA ←4.63
0.96WHIP ←1.18
7W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Burns
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.89 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
Reid Detmers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.91, 1.19 below league — production is earned
Burns: 130 K / 2.89 ERA vs Detmers: 131 K / 2.91 ERA — near-identical ratios, but the sell-high vs buy verdicts diverge sharply.