Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryWilli
5HR →7
54R ←42
27RBI →33
2SB →7
.229AVG ←.220
Current Season
ChaseCategoryWilli
5HR ←2
36R ←24
18RBI →19
1SB →4
.269AVG ←.262
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Meidroth
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.344 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.297 is 0.035 below the surface — regression coming
Willi Castro
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Chase Meidroth: 5 HR / 54 R. Willi Castro: 7 HR / 42 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).