Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryMark
8HR →15
53R ←33
45RBI45
8SB ←0
.210AVG →.247
Current Season
ChristianCategoryMark
4HR →7
21R ←19
18RBI →26
3SB ←0
.275AVG ←.224
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Mark Vientos
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.245 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Mark Vientos: 15 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).