Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryPaul
8HR →12
52R ←44
45RBI ←44
7SB ←0
.212AVG →.272
Current Season
ChristianCategoryPaul
4HR →6
21R ←19
18RBI →19
3SB ←0
.275AVG ←.261
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.065 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Paul Goldschmidt
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.384)
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 52 R. Paul Goldschmidt: 12 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).