Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategorySal
8HR →18
52R ←50
45RBI →55
7SB →15
.212AVG →.255
Current Season
ChristianCategorySal
4HR →12
21R →34
18RBI →37
3SB →10
.275AVG ←.261
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.065 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Sal Stewart
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.364, +0.049 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 52 R. Sal Stewart: 18 HR / 50 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).