Rest of Season Projection
ColeCategoryPierce
35K →37
3.70ERA ←3.75
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W2–5
1–3SV1–3
Current Season
ColeCategoryPierce
23K ←20
5.40ERA →3.27
1.45WHIP →1.23
2W2
1SV1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Cole Winn
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.83)
Pierce Johnson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.23 is 2.96 above the ERA — regression coming
Cole Winn: 35 K / 3.70 ERA. Pierce Johnson: 38 K / 3.75 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).