Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryJames
14HR →22
57R →78
43RBI →57
11SB →15
.266AVG ←.255
Current Season
CorbinCategoryJames
7HR →16
37R →53
28RBI →39
7SB →10
.286AVG ←.272
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.351 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.364 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
James Wood
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.432, +0.117 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Corbin Carroll: 14 HR / 57 R. James Wood: 22 HR / 78 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).