Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryTrent
14HR →15
55R ←51
42RBI →48
10SB ←6
.268AVG ←.236
Current Season
CorbinCategoryTrent
7HR7
37R ←33
28RBI →31
7SB ←4
.286AVG ←.207
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.348 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.362 is 0.040 below the surface — regression coming
Trent Grisham
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.345, +0.030 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Corbin Carroll: 14 HR / 55 R. Trent Grisham: 15 HR / 51 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).