Rest of Season Projection
EduardoCategoryTyler
81K →94
4.45ERA →4.05
1.35WHIP ←1.38
5–10W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
EduardoCategoryTyler
52K →57
2.24ERA ←6.04
1.19WHIP ←1.54
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Eduardo Rodriguez
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.64 is 2.12 above the ERA — regression coming
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Eduardo Rodriguez: 82 K / 4.45 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).