Rest of Season Projection
EmersonCategoryJesús
90K →119
4.15ERA →3.48
1.13WHIP ←1.27
4–8W4–8
0SV0
Current Season
EmersonCategoryJesús
70K →78
2.80ERA ←4.30
0.95WHIP ←1.31
4W4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Emerson Hancock
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.17 is 1.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Jesús Luzardo
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.345 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Emerson Hancock: 90 K / 4.15 ERA. Jesús Luzardo: 119 K / 3.48 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).