Rest of Season Projection
EmersonCategoryJustin
97K ←79
4.13ERA →3.84
1.13WHIP ←1.28
4–9W →8–17
0SV0
Current Season
EmersonCategoryJustin
70K ←40
2.80ERA ←2.87
0.95WHIP ←1.01
4W →7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Emerson Hancock
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.15 is 1.35 above the ERA — regression coming
Justin Wrobleski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.237 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.84 is 0.97 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Emerson Hancock: 97 K / 4.13 ERA. Justin Wrobleski: 79 K / 3.84 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).