Rest of Season Projection
JustinCategorySonny
70K →77
4.15ERA →4.09
1.28WHIP ←1.30
7–15W ←7–15
0SV0
Current Season
JustinCategorySonny
40K →41
2.87ERA ←3.06
1.01WHIP ←1.20
7W ←6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Justin Wrobleski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.18 is 1.24 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Sonny Gray
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
Justin Wrobleski: 70 K / 4.15 ERA. Sonny Gray: 77 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).