Rest of Season Projection
EzequielCategoryJackson
6HR →7
40R ←38
51RBI ←33
8SB →16
.266AVG ←.206
Current Season
EzequielCategoryJackson
4HR ←2
25R ←7
32RBI ←6
5SB ←3
.299AVG ←.242
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ezequiel Duran
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.378 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.316 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Jackson Holliday
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.338)
Ezequiel Duran: 6 HR / 40 R. Jackson Holliday: 7 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).