Rest of Season Projection
FernandoCategoryJarren
13HR ←11
28R →40
24RBI →45
19SB ←14
.302AVG ←.212
Current Season
FernandoCategoryJarren
1HR →10
21R →29
18RBI →33
14SB ←10
.266AVG ←.219
What Each Player's System Trusts
Fernando Tatis Jr.
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.352, +0.037 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.354 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.295 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 13 HR / 28 R. Jarren Duran: 11 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).