Rest of Season Projection
FreddyCategoryJoey
4HR →5
23R →31
8RBI →21
0SB0
.193AVG →.198
Current Season
FreddyCategoryJoey
0HR →2
11R ←9
4RBI →6
0SB0
.133AVG →.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Freddy Fermin
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.266)
Joey Bart
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
Freddy Fermin: 4 HR / 23 R. Joey Bart: 5 HR / 31 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).