Rest of Season Projection
GavinCategoryKyle
120K ←102
4.18ERA →3.10
1.18WHIP →1.13
7–16W ←7–16
0SV0
Current Season
GavinCategoryKyle
88K ←61
3.07ERA →1.57
1.09WHIP →1.03
8W ←6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gavin Williams
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.22 is 1.02 above the ERA — regression coming
Kyle Harrison
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.10, 1.00 below league — production is earned
Gavin Williams: 120 K / 4.18 ERA. Kyle Harrison: 102 K / 3.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).