Rest of Season Projection
GerritCategoryPayton
97K →103
4.10ERA →3.75
1.30WHIP →1.28
4–9W ←3–6
0SV0
Current Season
GerritCategoryPayton
12K →46
0.00ERA ←2.61
0.71WHIP ←0.90
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gerrit Cole
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.191 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.49 is 0.49 above the ERA — regression coming
Payton Tolle
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.31)
Gerrit Cole: 97 K / 4.10 ERA. Payton Tolle: 103 K / 3.75 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).