Rest of Season Projection
HoganCategoryJack
51K →53
3.68ERA →3.66
1.27WHIP →1.24
2–5W2–5
5–9SV ←4–7
Current Season
HoganCategoryJack
31K →33
2.60ERA ←5.46
1.59WHIP →1.21
2W2
4SV ←3
What Each Player's System Trusts
Hogan Harris
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.48 is 0.91 above the ERA — regression coming
Jack Perkins
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Hogan Harris: 51 K / 3.68 ERA. Jack Perkins: 53 K / 3.66 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).