Rest of Season Projection
IanCategoryTroy
13HR ←8
57R ←37
45RBI ←40
3SB →5
.193AVG →.297
Current Season
IanCategoryTroy
13HR ←2
39R ←23
31RBI ←25
2SB →3
.230AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ian Happ
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.347, +0.032 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Ian Happ: 13 HR / 57 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 37 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).