Rest of Season Projection
JacCategoryNathan
13HR ←9
30R →31
19RBI →31
1SB →7
.275AVG ←.239
Current Season
JacCategoryNathan
6HR ←5
20R ←18
13RBI →18
1SB →4
.242AVG →.260
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jac Caglianone
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.363, +0.048 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.376 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Nathan Church
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.287 below league with no luck excuse
Jac Caglianone: 13 HR / 31 R. Nathan Church: 9 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).