Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryJo
5HR →17
38R ←34
48RBI →53
19SB ←5
.258AVG →.262
Current Season
JakeCategoryJo
4HR →9
20R →22
25RBI →34
10SB ←3
.288AVG ←.236
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Jo Adell
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.272 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Jo Adell: 17 HR / 34 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).