Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryRiley
5HR →16
38R →48
48RBI ←44
19SB ←2
.258AVG →.274
Current Season
JakeCategoryRiley
4HR →5
20R →31
25RBI →28
10SB ←1
.288AVG →.309
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Riley Greene
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.360, +0.045 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Riley Greene: 16 HR / 48 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).