253 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Riley Greene
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Greene is a buy — elite contact, earned production.
His hard-hit rate is 51.0%, 11 points above league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample — 149 batted balls is well past the 50 needed for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA is .364, 49 points above league, and it too has been trending upward through 253 plate appearances, easily clear of the 160-PA stabilization threshold. His actual wOBA of .380 is a shade higher, but there is no luck gap inflating the line — the production is earned. The only caveat is his 28.1% strikeout rate, which is stable and well above average, so some batting-average volatility is baked in. The skill is real and the trend supports it. Buy.
Buy
med0.70
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.364, +0.049 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL149 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %51.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+11.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL149 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL149 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.364
lg avg .315 ▲+.049trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL253 / 160 PA
wOBA.380
lg avg .315 ▲+.065trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL253 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL253 / 60 PA
Walk %12.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL253 / 120 PA
BABIP.438
lg avg .295 ▲+.143too early to trust
NOISE149 / 800 BIP