Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryRiley
13HR →15
54R ←45
41RBI ←40
10SB ←1
.267AVG →.281
Current Season
CorbinCategoryRiley
7HR ←5
37R ←31
28RBI28
7SB ←1
.286AVG →.309
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.346 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.361 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Riley Greene
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.365, +0.050 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Corbin Carroll: 13 HR / 54 R. Riley Greene: 15 HR / 45 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).