Rest of Season Projection
JarrenCategoryRiley
12HR →16
45R →48
51RBI ←44
16SB ←2
.219AVG →.274
Current Season
JarrenCategoryRiley
10HR ←5
29R →31
33RBI ←28
10SB ←1
.219AVG →.309
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.308)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Riley Greene
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.360, +0.045 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jarren Duran: 12 HR / 45 R. Riley Greene: 16 HR / 48 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).