Rest of Season Projection
JJCategoryLuke
11HR →14
44R ←41
63RBI ←58
2SB2
.241AVG ←.234
Current Season
JJCategoryLuke
10HR →13
19R →22
27RBI →31
1SB1
.301AVG ←.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
JJ Bleday
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.402)
Luke Raley
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.382, +0.067 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
JJ Bleday: 11 HR / 44 R. Luke Raley: 14 HR / 41 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).