Rest of Season Projection
JoeyCategoryPedro
6HR6
32R ←23
21RBI ←19
0SB →4
.199AVG →.207
Current Season
JoeyCategoryPedro
2HR →4
9R →11
6RBI →9
0SB →2
.259AVG ←.216
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joey Bart
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
Pedro Pagés
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.276)
Joey Bart: 6 HR / 32 R. Pedro Pagés: 6 HR / 23 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).