Rest of Season Projection
KyleCategoryRyan
32K →40
3.73ERA ←4.10
1.29WHIP →1.27
1–2W ←0–0
1–2SV ←0
Current Season
KyleCategoryRyan
16K →29
1.93ERA ←5.35
1.54WHIP →1.46
1W ←0
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Kyle Finnegan
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.14 is 2.26 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Ryan Watson
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.90)
Kyle Finnegan: 32 K / 3.73 ERA. Ryan Watson: 40 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).