Rest of Season Projection
LucasCategoryPeter
45K →75
4.10ERA →3.80
1.30WHIP ←1.37
7–15W ←5–11
0SV0
Current Season
LucasCategoryPeter
6K →43
4.97ERA →3.77
1.74WHIP →1.21
2W →4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Lucas Giolito
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.96 is 0.60 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Peter Lambert
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.80)
Lucas Giolito: 45 K / 4.10 ERA. Peter Lambert: 75 K / 3.80 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).