Rest of Season Projection
LuisCategoryMarcus
1HR →11
44R ←37
35RBI →37
8SB8
.296AVG ←.249
Current Season
LuisCategoryMarcus
2HR →6
29R ←23
23RBI23
5SB5
.321AVG ←.228
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luis Arraez
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.324 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.310 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
Marcus Semien
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.257 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Luis Arraez: 1 HR / 44 R. Marcus Semien: 11 HR / 37 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).