Rest of Season Projection
LuisCategoryOswald
1HR →8
43R ←32
34RBI ←27
7SB →12
.295AVG ←.254
Current Season
LuisCategoryOswald
2HR →7
29R ←18
23RBI ←15
5SB →7
.321AVG ←.280
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luis Arraez
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.324 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.309 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Oswald Peraza
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.334, +0.019 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Luis Arraez: 1 HR / 43 R. Oswald Peraza: 8 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).