Rest of Season Projection
MattCategoryWilli
10HR ←7
35R →43
34RBI34
11SB ←7
.214AVG →.223
Current Season
MattCategoryWilli
5HR ←2
22R →24
21RBI ←19
7SB ←4
.198AVG →.262
What Each Player's System Trusts
Matt McLain
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.307)
Willi Castro
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.285 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Matt McLain: 10 HR / 35 R. Willi Castro: 7 HR / 43 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).