MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 19, 2026
Portrait of Matt McLain
Matt McLain
CIN · 2B
Change to
Portrait of Willi Castro
Willi Castro
COL · 2B
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Willi Castro.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — runs, RBI, and average. Matt McLain’s box score looks better right now, but it’s built on luck that won’t hold.

Head-to-head
HR
R
RBI
SB
AVG

Willi Castro wins 3 categories (R, RBI, AVG); Matt McLain wins 2 (HR, SB).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Avg Exit Velolg 89.0 · higher = better
Matt McLain
88.8
Willi Castro
88.3
Hard-Hit %lg 40.0% · higher = better
Matt McLain
38.0%
Willi Castro
40.9%
Barrel %lg 8.0% · higher = better
Matt McLain
9.1%
Willi Castro
6.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · lower = better
Matt McLain
25.3%
Willi Castro
37.5%
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · lower = better
Matt McLain
11.7%
Willi Castro
16.3%
xwOBAlg .315 · higher = better
Matt McLain
.317
Willi Castro
.295
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · batting average
AVGhigher is better
Matt McLain
.200.290
lg AVG .295
now .198
.213
Willi Castro
.200.290
lg AVG .295
now .262
.233

Volume · counting stats
Home Runshigher is better
Matt McLain
56.20
now 5
4
Willi Castro
56.20
now 2
3
Runshigher is better
Matt McLain
2027.20
now 22
18
Willi Castro
2027.20
now 24
22
RBIhigher is better
Matt McLain
2024.20
now 21
17
Willi Castro
2024.20
now 19
18
Stolen Baseshigher is better
Matt McLain
2.808.20
now 7
6
Willi Castro
2.808.20
now 4
4
If you already own them — trade angle
Buy LowMatt McLain — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.67
SellWilli Castro — sell.conf 0.59
Tweet