Rest of Season Projection
MaxCategoryWalbert
76K ←75
4.14ERA →3.27
1.31WHIP ←1.46
2–4W →2–5
0SV0
Current Season
MaxCategoryWalbert
14K →41
10.23ERA →2.44
1.73WHIP →1.38
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Max Scherzer
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.11)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Walbert Ureña
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.27 is 0.83 above the ERA — regression coming
Max Scherzer: 77 K / 4.14 ERA. Walbert Ureña: 76 K / 3.27 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).