Rest of Season Projection
MerrillCategoryRanger
74K →93
6.39ERA →3.63
1.45WHIP →1.30
6–13W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
MerrillCategoryRanger
33K →57
5.06ERA →3.38
1.46WHIP →1.16
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Merrill Kelly
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 7.62 is 1.91 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Ranger Suarez
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.63, 0.47 below league — production is earned
Suarez projects 93 K against Kelly's 74 K, and his 3.63 ERA outpaces Kelly's 6.39 — buy Suarez, sell Kelly.