Rest of Season Projection
MerrillCategorySean
74K →89
6.39ERA →3.68
1.45WHIP →1.30
6–13W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
MerrillCategorySean
33K →60
5.06ERA →3.72
1.46WHIP →1.13
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Merrill Kelly
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 7.62 is 1.91 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Sean Burke
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.68, 0.42 below league — production is earned
Kelly projects for 6.39 ERA / 1.45 WHIP vs Burke's 3.68 / 1.30 — a clear skill gap. Sell-high on Kelly; add Burke as an acquisition.