MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
Portrait of Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
PIT · P
Change to
Portrait of Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
KC · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
▶
◀
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Mitch Keller wins 1 (WHIP); Seth Lugo wins 1 (ERA); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Mitch Keller
93.3
Seth Lugo
91.7
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Mitch Keller
9.7%
Seth Lugo
8.6%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Mitch Keller
17.7%
Seth Lugo
17.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Mitch Keller
29.4%
Seth Lugo
25.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Mitch Keller
42.3%
Seth Lugo
42.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Mitch Keller
7.4%
Seth Lugo
7.9%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Mitch Keller
.355
Seth Lugo
.343
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Mitch Keller
2.965.61
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.35
5.02
Seth Lugo
2.965.61
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.55
4.74
WHIPlower is better
Mitch Keller
1.061.55
now 1.17
1.38
Seth Lugo
1.061.55
now 1.35
1.44

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Mitch Keller
4084
now 51
0
Seth Lugo
4084
now 60
0
Winshigher is better
Mitch Keller
.0007
now 5
0–0
Seth Lugo
.0007
now 2
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellMitch Keller — sell.conf 0.90
SellSeth Lugo — sell.conf 0.85
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