Rest of Season Projection
NathanCategoryTaylor
3HR →6
22R →28
25RBI ←24
0SB →4
.285AVG ←.218
Current Season
NathanCategoryTaylor
0HR0
8R ←7
9RBI ←6
0SB →1
.301AVG →.314
What Each Player's System Trusts
Nathan Lukes
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.307)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.359 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Taylor Trammell
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.477 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.260 is 0.073 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
Nathan Lukes: 3 HR / 22 R. Taylor Trammell: 6 HR / 28 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).