Rest of Season Projection
PaytonCategoryZack
101K ←83
2.48ERA ←3.22
1.21WHIP →1.13
3–6W →5–11
0SV0
Current Season
PaytonCategoryZack
46K ←40
2.61ERA →2.27
0.90WHIP →0.85
2W →4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Payton Tolle
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.48, 1.62 below league — production is earned
Zack Wheeler
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.209 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.22 is 1.00 above the ERA — regression coming
Payton Tolle: 104 K / 2.47 ERA. Zack Wheeler: 85 K / 3.21 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).