Rest of Season Projection
RyneCategoryShawn
44K ←37
3.71ERA3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
1–2W →1–3
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
RyneCategoryShawn
30K ←19
5.56ERA →3.60
1.76WHIP →1.33
1W1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ryne Stanek
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.91 sits 0.19 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.323 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Shawn Armstrong
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.14 is 0.82 above the ERA — regression coming
Ryne Stanek: 45 K / 3.71 ERA. Shawn Armstrong: 38 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).