MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
week 12
this weekHOLD
last week

Lance McCullers Jr.

data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.46); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 92WHIP 1.34ERA 4.16W 3–6SV 0

McCullers is a hold — league average, nothing to act on.

ROS projects K 43 YTD → 92 ROS, ERA 6.86 YTD → 4.16 ROS, WHIP 1.53 YTD → 1.34 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %12.8%+2.5%vs his ~10.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %25.0%−1.1%vs his ~26.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.46)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.5%
50.5%*
lg avg 40.0% +10.5%vs his norm —
105 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% +0.6%vs his norm —
105 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
.330*
lg avg .315 +.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league averageexpect it to fall.
172 / 200 TBF
xERA4.46
4.46*
lg avg 4.10 +0.36vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
172 / 200 TBF
ERA6.86
6.86*
lg avg 4.10 +2.76vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
39.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
norm25.0%*
lg avg 22.0% +3.0%vs his norm −1.1%
172 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.8%
norm12.8%*
lg avg 8.0% +4.8%vs his norm +2.5%
172 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
.316*
lg avg .295 +.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
105 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→25.6%signal92 K — K% 25.0% (signal) lifted to career ~26.1% → projected 25.6% over ~82 remaining IP.
xERA 4.46noise4.16 ERA — xERA 4.46 (noise) blended 18% skill / 82% league 4.10 at 39 IP.
BB% 12.8% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep92 K ROS, 4.16 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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