MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 22, 2026
268 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Royce Lewis

MIN·3B
data as of July 22, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.306); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 5AVG .210R 14RBI 17SB 4

Lewis is a hold — league average, stable, nothing pulling either way.

His expected wOBA is .306, essentially in line with the league average of .315, and his 268 plate appearances put that number past the stabilization point. His barrel rate is 12.9%, above the 8.0% league average, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate also sit above league. But his actual wOBA matches the expected number, meaning no luck is inflating or suppressing his production. The xwOBA has been trending down across the sample — what he's doing now is probably a fair read of his current skill level. Strikeouts are a touch above league and swing-and-miss rate is high, but there's no unstable metric pushing the line toward a breakout or a collapse. He is what he is right now. Hold. 5 HR, 14 R, 17 RBI, 4 SB, .210 AVG — a hold, but droppable in shallow leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %12.9%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~10.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.306)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
89.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
170 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.4%
42.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
170 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.9%
norm12.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
170 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
268 / 160 PA
wOBA.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
268 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.5%
26.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
268 / 60 PA
Walk %9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
268 / 120 PA
BABIP.263
norm.263*
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm −.019 ▼BABIP is below his ~.282 norm — expect it to rise.
170 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.2%
16.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
268 / 50 PA
Chase %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
268 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.9%→11.5%signal5 HR — Barrel% 12.9% (signal) tempered to career ~10.2% → projected 11.5%.
BABIP 0.263→0.289 regressednoise.210 AVG — BABIP 0.263 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.296 (xBA 0.224) → 0.289.
on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~157 projected PA.
slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~157 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (3 in 32 G) over ~157 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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