MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
609 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR·1B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.63
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Guerrero Jr. is a buy — the contact is stepping up.

His hard-hit rate is 44.3%, four points above league average, and it has been climbing across the sample. That contact quality is the engine here: 90.3 mph average exit velocity, well past the 50 batted balls where those numbers become trustworthy, now at 467. The expected wOBA says the same thing — .331, .016 above league — and it is trending up too. The actual wOBA sits at .305, below that expected mark, so his stat line is trailing the skill rather than inflating it. He strikes out just 13.3% of the time, less than half the league rate, which puts a floor under his average even in the weeks the hits do not fall. The bat is real and the results have not caught up yet. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.9%—−5.5% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.3 mph
90.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
467 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.3%
44.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
467 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −5.5% ▼
467 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.331
.331*
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
609 / 160 PA
wOBA.305
.305*
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
609 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.7%vs his norm —
609 / 60 PA
Walk %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
609 / 120 PA
BABIP.288
norm.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm −.023 ▼BABIP is below his ~.311 norm — expect it to rise.
467 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
609 / 50 PA
Chase %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
609 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.9%→8.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.9% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 8.5%.
BABIP 0.288→0.293 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.288 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.301 (xBA 0.280) → 0.293.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (5 in 58 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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