Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .333 with 13% Ks — the profile says buy

554 PA · week 25

this weekBUY

last weekBUY

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR·1B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Buy stable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.64

ROSAVG .274HR 1R 6RBI 4SB 1

Guerrero is a buy — elite contact, and the results are lagging

His hard-hit rate is 44.5%, above the 40% league average, and on 429 batted balls that sample is well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. The trend is still climbing, too. His expected wOBA is .333, .018 above the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that to be stable. The odd part: his actual wOBA is .304, nearly 30 points below his expected mark. He strikes out just 12.8% of the time, among the lowest in the league, so he is not giving away at-bats. He is hitting the ball like an above-average regular and getting paid like a below-average one. Buy. Only 1 HR rest of season, but 6 R and .274 AVG make him a deep-rotational counting asset worth stashing.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.8%—−5.5% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo90.6 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —

429 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %44.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —

429 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −5.5% ▼

429 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.333

lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —

554 / 160 PA

wOBA.304

lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —

554 / 200 PA

Strikeout %12.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —

554 / 60 PA

Walk %9.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —

554 / 120 PA

BABIP.287

lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm −.024 ▼BABIP is below his ~.311 norm — expect it to rise.

429 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.2%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —

554 / 50 PA

Chase %30.0%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —

554 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.8%→8.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.8% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 8.6%.

BABIP 0.287→0.296 regressednoise.274 AVG — BABIP 0.287 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.307 (xBA 0.286) → 0.296.

on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~43 projected PA.

slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~43 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (5 in 58 G) over ~43 projected PA.

rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons