MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
387 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR·1B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.66
ROSAVG .285HR 5R 28RBI 19SB 4

Guerrero Jr. is a buy — elite contact, earned production.

His expected wOBA sits at .343, .028 above the league average of .315, and at 387 plate appearances that number is stable. His actual wOBA is .312, below xwOBA, meaning he is actually underperforming his skill level — bad luck, not a slump. The engine of his production is contact quality: a 44.3% hard-hit rate that has been stepping up across the sample, well above the 40.0% league average, and supported by 90.0 mph average exit velocity. He strikes out just 12.9% of the time, a full nine points below league, and walks at an above-average clip. The bat is real and the bounces will catch up. Buy. 5 HR, 28 R, 19 RBI, 4 SB, .285 AVG — a deep-league asset that'll reward the patient buyer.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.9%—−5.5% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.0 mph
90.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.3%
44.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −5.5% ▼
291 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.343
.343*
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
387 / 160 PA
wOBA.312
.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
387 / 200 PA
Strikeout %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.1%vs his norm —
387 / 60 PA
Walk %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
387 / 120 PA
BABIP.288
norm.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm −.023 ▼BABIP is below his ~.311 norm — expect it to rise.
291 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
387 / 50 PA
Chase %31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
387 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.9%→9.1%signal5 HR — Barrel% 6.9% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 9.1%.
BABIP 0.288→0.301 regressednoise.285 AVG — BABIP 0.288 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.309 (xBA 0.287) → 0.301.
on-base + lineup28 R — his run rate over ~196 projected PA.
slugging + lineup19 RBI — his RBI rate over ~196 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (5 in 58 G) over ~196 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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