week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Zack Littell
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 6.39 is 1.49 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 36ERA 5.59WHIP 1.33W 3–7SV 0
Littell is a sell-high — ERA luck is about to reverse.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.8%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~19.1% career norm
- Walk %6.8%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~5.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 6.39 is 1.49 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
299 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
299 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.381
lg avg .315 ▲+.066vs his norm —
384 / 200 TBF
xERA6.39
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.29vs his norm —
384 / 200 TBF
ERA4.90
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.80vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
384 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
384 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
299 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
384 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
384 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
1436 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.8%→16.3%signal36 K — K% 14.8% (signal) lifted to career ~19.1% → projected 16.3% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 6.39signal5.59 ERA — xERA 6.39 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 59 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop36 K ROS, 5.59 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.