MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Zack Littell
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Zack Littell

WSH·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Littell is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 6.07 is 1.06 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.1%
45.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL204 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.3%
11.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL204 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.379
.379
lg avg .315 ▲+.064trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL259 / 200 TBF
xERA6.07
6.07
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.97trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL259 / 200 TBF
ERA5.01
5.01
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.91too early to trust
NOISE59.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.5%
13.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL259 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL259 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045too early to trust
NOISE204 / 800 BIP