MLB Daily DeltaWeek 20 · August 6, 2026
Aaron Civale
CHC · P
Change to
Cade Povich
BAL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Civale wins 2 (K, W); Cade Povich wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.4
Cade Povich
91.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.6%
Cade Povich
12.2%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
17.4%
Cade Povich
18.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.8%
Cade Povich
31.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
45.7%
Cade Povich
44.2%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
9.8%
Cade Povich
7.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.340
Cade Povich
.333
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
3.695.53
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.65
Cade Povich
3.695.53
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.12
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.231.54
now 1.47
1.39
Cade Povich
1.231.54
now 1.34
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4049.80
now 39
30
Cade Povich
4049.80
now 12
24
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.0006.60
now 5
25
Cade Povich
.0006.60
now 1
12

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.80
Hold · wait & seeCade Povich — hold.conf 0.50
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