Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryMatt
73K ←67
4.75ERA →4.09
1.37WHIP →1.30
5–11W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryMatt
39K ←22
4.20ERA ←8.49
1.47WHIP ←1.71
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Aaron Civale: 74 K / 4.74 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).