MLB Daily DeltaWeek 20 · August 6, 2026
Aaron Civale
CHC · P
Change to
Matt Waldron
TOR · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Matt Waldron.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Aaron Civale’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Matt Waldron wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Aaron Civale wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.4
Matt Waldron
92.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.6%
Matt Waldron
8.5%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
17.4%
Matt Waldron
19.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.8%
Matt Waldron
30.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
45.7%
Matt Waldron
40.4%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
9.8%
Matt Waldron
6.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.340
Matt Waldron
.306
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
2.338.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.65
Matt Waldron
2.338.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.49
4.09
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.141.87
now 1.47
1.39
Matt Waldron
1.141.87
now 1.71
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4045.80
now 39
30
Matt Waldron
4045.80
now 22
31
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.0006.60
now 5
25
Matt Waldron
.0006.60
now 1
12

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.80
Hold · wait & seeMatt Waldron — hold.conf 0.50
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