MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHI · P
Change to
Nick Pivetta
SD · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 11, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Nola wins 1 (ERA); Nick Pivetta wins 1 (WHIP); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Nola
92.3
Nick Pivetta
94.1
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
12.7%
Nick Pivetta
10.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
24.4%
Nick Pivetta
31.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
32.9%
Nick Pivetta
37.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
40.4%
Nick Pivetta
33.3%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
9.2%
Nick Pivetta
7.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Nola
.307
Nick Pivetta
.242
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Nola
3.316.19
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.55
3.95
Nick Pivetta
3.316.19
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.50
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Nola
1.031.49
now 1.39
1.31
Nick Pivetta
1.031.49
now 1.13
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Nola
4084.40
now 64
13
Nick Pivetta
4084.40
now 24
13
Winshigher is better
Aaron Nola
.0004.20
now 3
01
Nick Pivetta
.0004.20
now 1
01

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyAaron Nola — hold.conf 0.60
Hold · wait & seeNick Pivetta — hold.conf 0.50
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