Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryLucas
108K ←50
4.24ERA →4.10
1.29WHIP ←1.30
3–7W →7–16
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryLucas
64K ←6
5.55ERA →4.97
1.39WHIP ←1.74
3W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.31)
Lucas Giolito
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.12)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Aaron Nola: 108 K / 4.24 ERA. Lucas Giolito: 50 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).