Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryStephen
102K ←50
4.26ERA →4.03
1.33WHIP →1.30
3–6W →5–11
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryStephen
64K ←19
5.55ERA →3.48
1.39WHIP →0.94
3W3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.34 is +0.24 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Stephen Kolek
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.37)
Nola's 102 K more than double Kolek's 50, outweighing the narrow ERA gap (4.26 vs 4.03). Holds both; the K ceiling separates them.